USArcher:@chris-moderator, you seem to be down on the whole Media Center concept.
What has Microsoft done with treatment of Extender OEMs that has caused you to lose trust? If you are basing it on one company, Cisco/Linksys, who has pulled one sku..well I would say those folks have competitive reasons for not really throwing more of their weight behind Extenders. After all, they own a company that makes settop/dvr boxes for cable companys etc. But I don't believe that this one company or pulled sku represents a trend.
I've been somewhat down on Media Center for a while now. I know there are some things coming that will boost me as well as many of you up, but I'll let you wait until you see what those are and how they work.
And no, I'm not basing anything off Linksys/Cisco. I've know things about the product that most don't, and I've know them for a while. In terms of Extenders you have to look big picture. HP and Linksys are on their second go around and both ventures are pretty much been a failure in terms of sales. The market for Media Center just isn't big enough for big OEMs to get in on the action.
It also isn't just one company. Nivues (the highest of the high end) dropped their Extender's just months after releasing them. HP hasn't officially killed theirs, but they did drop out of the connected TV market (which included a MediaSmart TV w/ Extender integrated).
USArcher:Ian Dixon posted on his blog a report that predicted Media Center/Extender growth of about 15% annually, reaching 60 millions households by 2013. That might not seem like a lot considering the overall market but I think its significant enough. The report also predicts costs for Media Center/Extender to drop 15% annually.
Sorry, I'm not a big numbers guy with stuff like this. This doesn't take in account that it is very hard to things to grow when no one is producing them. If there are no OEMs to build Extenders, there is no growth rate. I'm also not sure the report walks hand and hand with what Microsoft is developing. I said a few months ago that I believe the focus is on watching "TV on the PC," and while I see something different I'm going to stick to that.
USArcher: If roku can make a sub $100 priced extender so can Media Extender partners. I think it was hugely unrealistic for OEMs to think they could have penetrated the market with $200+ devices. Now, I don't know what drove them to those price points but it could be that the hardware was a tad ahead of its time 2 years ago and justified the higher price.
The differences in the Roku and the Linksys Extenders aren't that huge. In fact, most devices on the market use a varation of the Sigma processor found in the Linksys devices. As for what drives the price up, I can't say exactly. I doubt it is much on the hardware side though.
USArcher:
Do you see any way, even if unlikely, to turn Media Center into a consumer hit? And if Microsoft wasn't looking to grow Media Center then why would they include it in the upcoming release of Windows 7? Do you think price is the main limiting factor?
You have to define "consumer hit". Your thinking whole home I assume. Why include and promote as a part of Windows 7? Why include any other desktop application? Where in any Windows 7 marketing have you seen Microsoft promote using Media Center for whole home connected lifestyles?
USArcher:
Another area that Microsoft really needs to tackle (at least here in the U.S.) is getting the $300 cablecard tuner costs down. We need more competition instead of letting AMD basically dictate prices.
Microsoft plays no role here. They don't do hardware, and for the number of OCURs AMD makes I don't see why they would be interested in cutting costs. Actually, given the issues AMD is having I wouldn't put much of any thought on OCUR right now. As for others getting in the game, no reason they can't. The price of admission with CableLabs will hold most back though.
USArcher:
Store location ("TV/DVD" section) is something that Tivo has going
for it. For Microsoft to get that sort of product placement it will
likely require partnerships with major consumer electronics
manufacturers. To date they have primarily focused on networking
equipment/pc manufacturers for the Media Center platform. However,
at CES there were some signs that this may be changing ever so
slightly. Another reason "for" moving Media Center onto the Windows
Home Server platform is that it removes alot of the traditional PC
aspects..making it much easier to incorporate in an entertainment
offering that is displayed in a store's "TV/DVD" section. Yes, there
is some complexity around WHS's networking requirements but I think
could be alleviated by some alternation of the WHS base unit..perhaps a
small built-in LCD control panel.
OEMs don't really care about removing the traditional PC aspects, they care about market share and so does everyone reading this right now. Why do you care about market share? It means economics of scale actually works (eg. price goes down)
In fact the concept of WHS+MCE taking the tourch from the desktop PC is most likely the last thing any big OEM wants to see. Would OEM X rather develop any Extender where the prime market is millions of desktop, or a few hunderd thousand WHS+MCEs?
Chris LanierThe Green Button Forum Moderator