None of the satellite or cable companies will provide a DVR with the full range of functionality available with an HTPC. With a PC, not only can you watch live & recorded programming, but you can also watch DVDs, BDs and downloaded videos - not to mention the fact that you can run a web browser and also get access to new web programs (like Sanctuary, Dr. Horrible or Gemini Division).
And with the PC, you have multiple choices for the DVR application.
If Fiji had delivered on the earlier promise of supporting new devices such as the HDPC-20 or HD-PVR, or if VMC had supported CableCard tuners as upgrades to existing systems - the situation today would be much different.
Based on Microsoft's track record of device support for VMC and Fiji, this might be a risky assumption - but let's assume that Microsoft does (finally) deliver the broad device in Windows 7 that will be required in order to keep VMC as a viable product.
By the time Windows 7 ships - it's likely that most VMC users will be restricted to only local broadcast digital channels - since the cable companies are moving to encrypt or SDV everything else. That wouldn't be a very compelling product!
Either Microsoft or some creative vendor (like Silicondust and the HDHR) should be seeing this opportunity - and provide a solution that addresses this large and growing potential HTPC market.
So if Windows 7 does provide broad device support users will need to get anything but local broadcast channels - then our issue today is more about an interim solution until Windows 7 has a clean solution. Should we jump VMC for TiVoHD? SageTV? BeyondTV? Cable/satellite DVR?
Or will someone come up with a creative solution to bridge VMC users over until Windows 7 comes out?
Is Hauppauge going to come up with a solution for supporting their HD-PVR on Vista? Without VMC support, they've lost a large part of their potential market - so they have some financial incentive for coming up with a solution.
Could someone come up with a FireSTB-like solution for working within the VMC framework, and automatically converting the HD-PVR's H.264 to DVR-MS (or WTV)?
Or perhaps someone could come up with an HDHR-like solution with a BDA driver that fronts the HD-PVR and does the H.264 to DVR-MS conversion in real-time...
Or maybe there's another vendor out there with a solution they haven't yet brought to the market - and this is a huge potential market!
On the other hand, if the creative users are jumping ship for SageTV - then the likelihood of seeing any innovative solutions to bridge the gap to Windows 7 is getting slimmer and slimmer.
Too bad that the vendors aren't willing to make any commitments of how they are going to solve these problems - and when...