I think it's #4, though I don't think the blogs reporting it mind the side effect (#1) because I lot of them are full of #2 ;-)

I think it is a mix of 1, 2, and 4.

3 is just wishing......

Hell, I have no idea...it is strange that so many different reports are coming out.  Hopefully, where there is smoke there is fire.  I will say this though, 4 of my buddies, have recently purchased Ps3's because they wanted a "cheap" Blueray player.  I discussed the benefits of the 360 with them at great length, but in the end Blu-ray was what they really wanted and they selected their console based on that.  It will be interesting to see the NPD numbers over the next couple of months to see if this is truly a trend.  If it is, MS could sacrificing signficant market share as a result of not having a Hi-Def option (don't call movie downloads an option, it's not).

I have 3 Xbox 360's and was thinking about purchasing a PS3 just for the Bluray player for movies. Chances are I wouldnt buy any games for the PS3. My Son has both a 360 and a PS3. He also uses the PS3 only for the Bluray movies and uses the 360 for games. I know a few gamer friends that use the PS3 ONLY for Bluray movies. Question is.....does MS think the same.....who knows how many PS3's sit day after day waiting to play a Bluray movie only to sit again until the owner rents another movie? So at this point I know 1 person who plays games on his PS3 and 5 who dont. Im not holding my breath until I see a drive in a retail box. MS almost never spills the beans until they have a finished product anyway they always deny deny deny.
Probably #4 possibly #3